El Niño now among strongest in modern history; unusually warm and unsettled conditions persist in California

Filed in Uncategorized by on October 8, 2015 3,506 Comments

All-time record warmth despite Southern California rain

It has been a relentlessly warm year across essentially all of California.

California is experiencing its record warmest year-to-date. (NCDC)

California is experiencing its record warmest year-to-date. (NCDC)

Not only is 2015 California’s warmest year on record to date (beating the previous record set all the way back in 2014), but the details of the persistently elevated temperatures have been particularly oppressive. Heatwaves have been a frequent occurrence throughout the state this summer and now continuing into early autumn, but it’s not just afternoon highs that have been stifling: overnight minimum temperatures, buoyed by the incredible warmth of the nearshore Pacific waters, have been far above their typical levels. This has been especially true in Southern California, where water temperatures as high as 80 F (!) have essentially shut off the natural ocean “air conditioner.”

Extremely warm ocean temperatures have also interacted with an unusually high number of atmospheric disturbances to bring highly anomalous warm season precipitation to Southern California. Some of these disturbances have been tropical in nature (most memorably, the remnants of Hurricane Dolores back in July), but more recently the culprit has been a series of erratic and slow-moving cut-off lows.

Much of Southern California saw an impressively wet summer. (WRCC)

Much of Southern California saw an impressively wet summer. NorCal has not fared as well. (WRCC)

Overnight temperatures have been astonishingly warm in recent weeks, especially in Southern California. (WRCC)

Overnight temperatures have been astonishingly warm in recent weeks, especially in Southern California. (WRCC)

These systems have provided the large-scale conditions necessary for the formation of widespread showers and thunderstorms—not just in the typical mountain and desert regions—and the record-warm ocean has added a large amount of extra moisture into the atmosphere (which is likely a substantial factor in the numerous rainfall records set this summer).

Unfortunately, these out-of-season rains have not extended to Northern California, which has been left largely dry (and very warm), and extreme fire risk persists. It’s important to keep in mind, however, that mostly dry (and often warm) conditions are pretty typical in the region at least through the middle of October.

 

Cut-off low to make a return visit to California

In an impressively circuitous turn of events, the very same cutoff low that brought strong winds to Northern California and thunderstorms to Southern California last week will swing back toward the state in the coming days. Cut-off lows—so named because their center of circulation is “cut off” from the prevailing west-to-east winds that characterize the mid-latitudes—tend to exhibit erratic trajectories and can be notoriously tricky to forecast in advance. The unusual track of the incoming low—originally from the northwest, but now from the east or even southeast—is no exception, which makes the eventual impacts of the low’s return visit subject to considerable uncertainty.

 

 

It does appear that this low will eventually bring some precipitation once again in at least Southern California, and perhaps parts Northern California as well. Details are vague at this early juncture, but it does appear likely that this system will pick up some additional subtropical moisture sometime next week before interacting with an eastward-moving trough over the North Pacific. Showers—and perhaps thunderstorms—could again affect a pretty wide swath of the Golden State next week. There is some concern—especially given the lack of recent rainfall in the north—that convective activity associated with this system could lead to new wildfire starts. While it’s still too early to say for sure, this possibility serves as an important reminder that conditions are still extremely dry across most of California, and wildfire season is definitely not over yet. gfs_z500a_sd_wus_19

The unusual regional atmospheric circulation pattern allowing the cut-off to loop around the Southwest will also bring another prolonged period of southeasterly winds to much of California, bringing yet more warmth and humidity to the southern 2/3 of the state over the coming week. Anomalous warmth will likely extend across most of California, but the Los Angeles and San Diego areas will be most strongly affected.

 

Hurricane Oho taking a remarkable northward track

Central Pacific Hurricane Oho is making a virtually unprecedented northward beeline for the Gulf of Alaska. After weakening from a category 2 storm, Oho is expected to slowly transition into an extratropical (non warm-core) system as it accelerates northward in the coming days. Very impressively, it appears likely that Oho will retain some tropical characteristics (and perhaps hurricane strength winds) as far north as San Francisco (but out over the open ocean well to the west of California). While Oho will not bring any noticeable impacts to California (aside from some unusual surf conditions), it may bring very heavy precipitation and powerful near hurricane-force winds to parts of southeastern Alaska and far northern British Columbia, where it will make landfall this weekend.

 

 

El Niño already top-3 event in modern history; further strengthening still expected

The 2015-2016 El Niño is already the third strongest on record. (NOAA via Daniel Swain)

The 2015-2016 El Niño is already the third strongest on record. (NOAA via Daniel Swain)

I actually don’t have all that much to update on the El Niño front at the moment, since everything’s still on track for a very strong event during the coming winter. In fact, the most recently observational data now clearly indicates that the present event is already comparable in magnitude to both the 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 events, which were the strongest in the long-term record. North American and international forecast models continue to project further strengthening of warm topical Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies for another 1-3 months, with peak magnitude arriving sometime during Northern Hemisphere winter.

California impacts—in the form of wetter-than-average conditions–are still expected to be greatest during the core rainy season months of January-March (and perhaps also December), which means that we shouldn’t necessarily expect to see wetter than average conditions in October and November. It does, however, look very warm over the next couple of months, which virtually assures that 2015 will become California’s warmest year on record.

The latest multi-model ensemble plume shows that El Niño is not yet done strengthening. (CPC)

The latest multi-model ensemble plume shows that El Niño is not yet done strengthening. (CPC)

 

© 2015 WEATHER WEST

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  • Wyomg

    http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2015/1023/To-learn-to-battle-drought-California-turns-to-the-experts-Australia

    interesting article on water use. I always worry that when it rains just a bit, people will revert back to old water habits, despite a water deficit of a year plus. Especially those of us down here in LA/SD.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      When we get any rainy period with enough water to water the yard, I turn off the sprinkler system until things turn dry again. I also collect water in rain barrels and a few other containers to use for watering my container plants.

  • Some encouraging signs from both GFS and ECMWF of a more meaningful pattern change during the first week in November. While the shift would be unlikely to bring heavy precipitation, it would (finally!) bring much cooler weather along with at least some modest showers and probably some accumulating snowfall to the mountains. Also, the CFS has flipped back to a wet December–suggesting that that month really could go either way (and is unlikely to be extremely dry). Jan-April still looking very wet as the Pacific jet sinks far enough southward to be more strongly influenced by El Nino.

    • Crank Tango

      https://38.media.tumblr.com/504cb94fe0f41e563f435ee2f833dcb5/tumblr_n47d7f7uFv1rt5pgzo1_400.gif

      pattern change party!
      BTW, it is very fall-like up here in shasta county. Leaves changing, grass recovering and little baby trees sprouting.

      • Quagmire Cliffington

        I’ll take cooler temps any day of the week. It’s been 80 degrees since January.

    • Nick W.

      I love to see a pattern change.

    • jstrahl

      Good news!

    • Dan the Weatherman

      A more meaningful pattern change occurring in early November would seem more likely to occur as the rains began in Socal on November 10 for the 1997-98 season. There were 4 storms total for November that brought measurable rain to Socal during that strong El Nino season. October 1997 was actually quite tranquil in Socal like this October has been (in the coastal regions that is; some mountain areas have actually had quite a bit of rain this month), only that there was a somewhat stronger Santa Ana event which we haven’t had yet this season.

  • Nick W.

    48 degrees this morning in Santa Maria. Been months since we’ve dipped this low here.

  • Quagmire Cliffington

    A little upset my “I like Turtles” comment was removed, while 384 hr gfs stills are allowable. They are both equally irrelevant and have 0 impact on the outcome of weather. Daniel – you must not like turtles. I’d like an explanation.

    • xeren

      it’s 384 hour GFS’s all the way down

    • I’m trying to manage a proliferation of off-topic material lately (including non-weather/climate/science related gifs), so I’m using a slightly heavier editorial hand lately. I would argue that even GFS fantasyland frames are “evidence-based” posts…even if it’s weak evidence of anything meaningful. 🙂

      • Michael Vella

        Thanks Daniel. Your editorial decisions are deft. Although excessively long and far out readings, even if “evidence based” are marginally relevant, and a distraction if ill written and unproofread.

      • Quagmire Cliffington

        I see your point. And I raise you some science –

        https://seaturtles.org/newssection/el-nino-triggers-temporary-drift-gillnet-fishery-closure-southern-california/

        I wonder if we’re having similar issues this year. Like I said – I like turtles.

      • gray whale

        You have also upped your smiley-face quotient while doing so 🙂

      • As a long time (over 20 years!) moderator of (many) online forums, I understand completely the urge to occasionally use a “heavier editorial hand.” The gently approach only goes so far — and eventually simply deleting without comment is the only reasonable way to manage such things.

        Thank you, Daniel.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      I’m going to take a stab and say 384 hr GFS charts are more on topic than turtles (or giraffes, rabbits budgies, etc.). Yes, anyone with any familiarity with the topic of this blog understands that long-range model guidance is to be taken with a grain of salt (or a whole salt shaker’s worth). And during seasonal transitions or seasons dominated by large blocking patterns such as we’ve seen over the past few years, model skill stinks even more than usual.

      Turtles are cool though.

      • xeren

        ” anyone with any familiarity with the topic of this blog understands that long-range model guidance is to be taken with a grain of salt (or a whole salt shaker’s worth)”

        that’s the problem though, there are a lot of people trying to learn about the weather, who don’t have a lot of familiarity with the topic.

        and even people who are familiar still cry and gnash their teeth when the projections pull that deluge coming in 16 days, just one 6 hour run later. those resulting posts tend to take away from actual weather discussions. we may as well be discussing the underdogs at the horse races, or you know, turtles (and I think that’s quag’s point, if I can speak for him)

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          I don’t see how any new readers could come to the conclusion that 384hr model guidance is a legitimate forecast, considering how we all refer to it as “fantasyland” and each time one gets posted here people respond with comments that point out the unreliability model solutions that far out. Things like this – where one person posts a chart and others give their input, provides new readers with an opportunity learn about the relevance (or lack thereof) of those kind of things, as opposed to no one ever posting them.

          Personally, I look at 384hr charts for *potential* trends, which I’ll give more credence to if ensembles and subsequent runs perpetuate the trend, but that’s about the extent to which that kind of data can be useful.

      • jstrahl

        True that. Very good!

  • David Thomas

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/rb-animated.gif

    Am starting too think that the ecmwf is going too be right about the TS in the C pac. If is it could be other big win. For it has it was a big winner for hurricane JQ look how the TS is hocking up too the front. And it seems like it’s heading for SFO area

    • SlashTurn

      I also like how a ridge (yet weak) is holding off the coast of BC suppressing the jet south. It has no where else to go.

      If only the southern jet was just a little more active…

      • Quagmire Cliffington

        It’s almost as if it’s saying… “FINE… I’ll go to California ok? Sheesh.”

      • jstrahl

        But why not turning the jet north? Genuinely asking, because i don’t know the answer.

    • 805 Weather

      This looks so good for us almost too good to be true. We’ll just have to see, I’ll keep my optimism

    • jstrahl

      If i had a dime for every time that the models, be they Euro or GFS, showed something like that, only to have it sheared apart or shunted away, i could buy a town the size of Washington DC, including the NWS. 🙂 That feature is a LONG way from SF.

  • lightning10

    If anyone remembers thanksgiving a few years ago. It looked like we had a powerhouse storm system that was going to hit the area till about 2 days before the event and the models pulled the plug on it. Then we ended up getting just a touch of rain from it on thanksgiving night. I think the same thing could take place again. I would not be shocked if we got some very light showers mid week. Where the radar makes it look a lot more heavy then what is falling on the ground.

    • Quagmire Cliffington

      You are seriously the biggest downer/weatherwestweenie on this entire message board. So flagged dude. So flagged.

      • StormHiker

        I don’t understand the downers on here. There’s a consistent group that does nothing but complain and offer negative outlooks – it really drags the whole discussion down, usually needlessly.

        • jstrahl

          Are we seriously gonna start flagging people because their posts don’t rate high enough on a positive meter? What are we gonna do when someone posts a forecast which takes back a previous optimistic outlook? As long as stuff is fact-based, i see no problems with any post, this forum exists to facilitate discussion, not to boost morale.

          Besides, ou shouldn’t let other people drag you down, just because they have a different perspective than you do.

          • Quagmire Cliffington

            I didn’t really flag him. I’m just the village idiot.

          • Crouching Dallas

            I flagged him, and he deserved it.

          • gray whale

            NOBODY LISTENS TO TURTLE

          • Bandini

            “You made this Turtle!? You made a big gun!?”

          • SlashTurn

            Is Daniel, Chandler?

          • Bandini

            Totally. Good call, and the Burkhart is the RRR:

            https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3YJ9ym0ImQQ

          • Quagmire Cliffington

            Turtally.

          • jstrahl

            Thanks for clarifying, but some people thought you were serious. 🙂

          • StormHiker

            There’s a lot of complaining on here that isn’t fact-based, is based on speculation (“it just doesn’t FEEL like El Nino”), and adds nothing.

          • Dan the Weatherman

            It actually has been feeling like El Nino here in Socal with all the high humidity that it is in part due to the very warm SSTs off our coast. The last couple of weeks have been drier, but that is normal even during a strong El Nino.

          • jstrahl

            You mean, fact based like GFS 384 hr models?

          • Microbursts

            Like you have any reason to chime in here!!! You have been the poster child for debbie downers everywhere and its not surprising that your quick to comment on this post. I’m going to flag every post of yours until you lock up the glass half empty outlook on life

          • jstrahl

            You did see below that Quagmire was kidding, didn’t you? 🙂

        • lightning10

          If you look at any of todays model runs saying that we will get any rain in mid week for So Cal is being quite optimistic.

        • Tyler Price

          Yeah seriously true! And u know what they say about what ever thoughts and actions (negative or positive) you put out in the universe comes back to you.. Or something like that.. So if everyone is pessimistic and lame all the time then everything would just be negative.. For example if everyone on here was a Debbie downer and negative and conpletely doubted this El Niño and have absolutely no faith in a good water year.. Well then we probably would have a bad water year just to be punished for being so lame and negative! Mother Nature would be like “nah not this year california you guys are all super lame, and no storm wants to even go near Ca let alone hang out with you guys for a week or two” so if we all stay optomistic which we have every reason to be optomistic going into a strong El Niño season than I bet all of our prayers will be answered and that good energy we put out into the universe comes back to us!! Yay!! Ok rant done.. These are my whacky beliefs

          • weatherhead

            Nah, Nature doesn’t care about our thoughts. What She cares about is our carbon footprint. And She is already acting on that, if that is what you call punishment. Our thoughts do affect our own perception, which creates our worldview, and biases us to notice things that reinforce what we believe, positive or negative. So in that way our pessimism comes back to us in a self reinforcing loop. Funny how a bunch of scientific minded nerds can fall back into superstition at the drop of a hat. Wash your car, make it rain. Examine what is really happening behind the scenes. Our human actions do seem to be influencing the climate, but not in ways we can maintain control over. Each of us has to try our darndest to reduce our use of fossil fuel.

          • jstrahl

            Agreed, but i think he was being sarcastic.

          • jstrahl

            You need to have sarcasm colors, someone could take you seriously. Oops, someone did.:-)

      • Utrex

        I feel like there are both forced optimists and pessimists here. I usually balance my position between those two.

        • Bandini

          Second that.

    • Microbursts

      Nope…… i don’t remember this …. you must be confused 😉

      • Nick W.

        Pre-Thanksgiving dud of 2011, I do remember that. So much virga and clouds. That was the beginning of the state’s bad luck streak. I sure hope we’ll see the end of that.

  • thlnk3r

    EC and GFS being consisted last few days with this. As Daniel mentioned earlier, early November might finally bring cooler weather 😉

    • jstrahl

      Coole weather is cool! Precipitation would be even cooler. 🙂

    • craig matthews

      Given that the recent trends for these systems/lows from the north and northwest to take a track down the west coast states just inland from the coast, down the west side of central valley to socal, bringing precip to the sierra and socal(which is not a bad thing), but little or no precip for the central coast due to these re occuring inland tracks, this is a believable scenario. I just wish at some point one of these lows from the north or northwest would drop a little further west and get everyone cold and wet.

    • Microbursts

      This would be great news !! Thanks for posting… always a good day when you have a cold weather outbreak on the horizon…even if it means temps are going to drop to what was once considered the norm;)

      • thlnk3r

        Yeah exactly. The “Fall” feeling hasn’t really hit my area yet in So Cal (Inland Empire). I’m waiting for the mid-70’ish range. Still a tad warm today at 92F. Night time lows though have been very nice 🙂

        • Microbursts

          Dude 92* is rough…. I am heading down to Disneyland for Halloween and I sure hope I’m not standing in line dealing with those temps.. I am located in the Northern sierra foothills and its been consistently in the mid 70’s the past 2 weeks….. its bearable but I am ready for some cloudy days and high in the low 60’s 🙂

          • Dan the Weatherman

            It is forecast to be in the low-mid 80’s at Disneyland on Halloween. There is a possibility of a Santa Ana event at that time, but it probably won’t be really strong in that area. The winds here at my house in Orange (about 6 miles east of Disneyland) are usually stronger than they are there, since I am closer to the Santa Ana Mountains and Santa Ana Canyon.

          • Microbursts

            I can deal with low to mid 80’s … I am assuming that the Santa Ana’s effect minimum temps as well?? Warm nights ??

          • Dan the Weatherman

            If the wind is blowing at night, it will be warmer by as much as 8-10 degrees, but if it dies down, it will cool down quickly as the humidity is low.

  • rob b

    BA did a quick update on Opensnow. Likes the chances of snow Monday down to lake level but mentions it depends on where the low comes in.

    https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/tahoe?utm_source=internal&utm_medium=social&utm_term=facebook&utm_campaign=tahoedailysnow

  • SoCalWXwatcher

    Well, at least the system for this Wed/Thurs is within range of the Hi-Res NAM. Given how the GFS and EC have had such a hard time nailing this system down (and still don’t seem like they’ve got it figured out), i’d say it has the potential for a few surprises. That’s just my 2 Cents worth – that and another couple of bucks will get you a cup of coffee at Denny’s

    • Utrex

      The irony is there is virtually ~0.00 inches of precip. forecasted for many parts… while the reflectivity argues. Interesting.

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        The 4K NAM’s simulated reflectivity sure looks convective, at least for NorCal. Looks spotty, with some areas being in the right place at the right time to get a cloudburst, while other areas get zilch. The latest run looks a bit drier for SoCal, but, as has been the case with this thing for the past week – if you don’t like what the models show, wait ’til the next run…

    • gray whale

      I’m with you SCWW — that makes $.04!

    • craig matthews

      Wow, looking like a convective event for norcal. Its interesting what the nam shows right now re: the shortwave that shears/splits off the main system in the nepac, and slides down over ca from the nw right over a deep moist layer drawn in from the sw, from that former TS…. oh that could blossom convection just about anywhere… I think you are right about the potential for a few surprises.

  • Microbursts

    This was posted by Dr. Ventrice via twitter.. looks to back up what SoCalWXwatcher is showing for next week!!!

    • Thunderstorm98

      That is a strong trough!

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      What I posted earlier is for this Wed/Thurs. Although next week certainly has the potential for interesting weather.

      • Microbursts

        My bad I got your post mixed up with thInk3r

    • Tyler Price

      Yeah and I’ve noticed a trend lately for a dip in the jet stream to aim over Ca in the coming week (start of nov.) in the models.. Looks like the ridge in the N PAC will shift westward without so much Ridging (blocking) going on over CA, which will cause the jet stream to ride over and dip down thru CA! Hope these trends keep up and we get a good storm to start off November! ?

      • Microbursts

        Even if the storms take a dry over land trajectory the projected pattern certainly has brought chilly air to our region the past few years… I recall an inside slider that dropped down with minimal QPF but really chilly temps around early December two years ago that dropped 4-5 inches of snow down locally to 2000ft!!!

    • 805 Weather

      Wow!

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      For SoCal, it looks like that trough next week will deliver our coolest weather so far this Fall, but not before we endure our strongest Santa Ana wind event of the Fall on Friday/Saturday.

      • And those highs seem to have a tendency to stick around longer than forecast and wreak havoc on approaching lows and troughs. Hopefully, not the case this time.

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          Yeah, most likely we’re looking at another round of 90+ temps Fri/Sat with that Santa Ana (hopefully no fires – fingers crossed). But hopefully that cold trough ushers in the cool season next week. I’m SO done with the 90+temps, humid or not.

      • SlashTurn

        Dan the Weatherman should be all over this one. I agree with him in his “first big Santa Ana” to initiate the wet season theory.

        • Dan the Weatherman

          If we do get the Santa Ana this weekend, it wouldn’t surprise me if we get a storm within a week or two of the event.

    • Thunderstorm98

      Welcome trough! You can stay here as long as possible.

    • Nick W.

      That is a welcome change, if it brings more rain to my area.

    • Nathan

      Hopefully it moves ever so slightly west to pick up moisture

  • Bandini

    Rain chances for Wednesday upped to 70% with perhaps a few inches of snow up above 8-9K, we’ll see. Also looking at our first lows in the upper teens next week with that potentially cold system. Time will tell, as always.

  • craig matthews

    Nino 3.4 is up to +2.5C, up .1C from the last few weeks. Interesting to see Nino 4 go back up to 1.3C, which may be due to the initiation of the new Kelvin wave this last month. The new kelvin wave is looking strong in its development right now…

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      It’s also looking like CFS is entertaining the idea of a December peak, as opposed to the Nov peak it had been forecasting the past several months.

      • craig matthews

        Yes, I noticed that some of the NMME members are doing the same, esp the NASA which is way off the charts, but has a latter peak, in the DJF time as well.

      • click

        It’s done that periodically but they so far haven’t been sticking to that idea for more than a couple days at a time. I’d like to see it develope that idea more strongly.

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          I would think the new KW from this latest series of WWB’s would help with the later peak since it usually takes several weeks for the KW to fully work its way into Nino 3.4, and we’re already at November’s doorstep. Maybe that’s what these newest ensemble members are latching onto, but we’ll see.

          • click

            Definitely, I was watching the ensemble members closely as that WWB took hold for exactly that reason. They did toy with it then, so hopefully as more data comes in regarding that feedback, it resolves to the later peak solution.

          • That is likely the case.

  • mattzweck

    i was just looking at some satellite loops looks like an impressive storm front in pacific coming towards California don’t know if we’ll get anything down in here in socal but it ‘ll least cool us down. i do remember 97/98 el nino nice and warm than the rain came palmdale got dusting of snow. so were see what happens this winter.

  • David Thomas

    Area Forecast Discussion
    National Weather Service Sacramento CA
    323 PM PDT MON OCT 26 2015

    Upper level ridging across the Pacific Ocean will lead to dry,
    northerly flow across the area on Friday into early Saturday.
    Breezy north to northwest winds (with gusts in the 30-40 mph
    range) will continue across the Coastal Range and western side of
    the Valley through Friday night. Dry weather will remain on
    Saturday with highs some 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Next
    system of interest dives southward toward the Pacific NW Sunday
    into Monday. Lowering heights will lead to a noticeable drop in
    temps beginning Sunday with more significant cooling on Monday as
    high temperatures fall below normal. Model differences still
    remain on timing and subsequent details for the area late Sunday
    into Tuesday. Both ECMWF and GFS have two waves of precip over the
    area but vary in strength and timing of each wave. For now, have
    not made major changes to the forecast as ensembles showing a
    decent shot for precip across most of the area late Sunday into
    Tuesday. Best chances across higher elevations. Cooler air
    accompanying trough will drop snow levels to the 5000-6000 foot
    range by Monday/Tuesday so accumulations certainly possible. Will
    need to monitor as we approach the weekend as this could lead to
    travel impacts.

    looks like we may have are 1st winter storm of the season

    • Sokafriend

      That would be wonderful.

  • Mike Stephenson

    Does anyone know if OCT was above average so far temp wise? Summer feels like its having a hard time letting go this year. I feel like I’ve been running my AC in my truck every day, even in the mornings. Maby the incoming trough will shake things up a bit! Im finally ready to feel some cool pacific air

  • Josh

    there’s this guy on twitter responding to Eric blake’s tweet about a strong an El nino. this guy clams that el nino is falling apart and by mid winter will have an el modoki. Does this guy know what he’s talking about or is he spewing garbage here’s his tweet with his evidence

    http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html

    1an 2 is falling apart things are going has planned for my ideas just waiting on weenies too realize!

    • xeren

      i think i saw that tweet, someone responded with #lolmodoki

      • Josh

        really lol , guess the guy is a Debbie downer

        • jstrahl

          No, he’s just a plain know nothing idiot. I mean. did you bother reading the postings below about the rise in Nino 3.4 and 1 temps, and the Kelvin Wave?

    • I think you might have your answer in the question itself. 😉

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Yup, it’s collapsing into a 2.5+ El Niño that has yet to peak, with an ongoing strong WWB East of the Dateline, and a large Kelvin Wave in progress.
      😉

      • Josh

        woo hoo!!

    • Utrex

      He just wants a cold east/warm west pattern.

    • gray whale

      Wud U quit it with the modoki carp theirs not gon na be modoki thares no way the 3.4 wud go downn to modoki why are u sayin that

    • Sokafriend

      I think he is just taking opportunity to get attention, throw out his not consensus based theory./analysis. If the best he has to go on is that SST chart, that’s not much. I’ve seen the discussions about the modoki but they seem to be on the fringe. All the scientists I’ve been paying attention to think the temporary lowing of temp is normal and they will go back up in November. There are so many other factors at play.

    • jstrahl

      Not at all meaning to come down heavy, but if you post here with the hope that others read what you say and respond, shouldn’t you read what’s already been posted? That’s called reciprocation and respect. I mean, it may even be about the stuff you intend to post in regards to, as in fact was the case here.

      • Josh

        I apologize I was Just on twitter and I saw that person comment and Just wanted to get a discussion going I’m a very curios person. I always try to ask why is this person thinking the way they do when everyone else is thinking otherwise.

        • Charlie Hohn

          based on his grammar and vocabulary I wouldn’t pay much attention. Not to be a jerk or anything but…. heh.

  • Crouching Dallas

    Confirmed – HWY 120 is a conifer graveyard. Super depressing out there, guys. A few of you have made similar observations the past few months – and of course that recent LAT article was particularly dire – but it was jarring to see die-offs on such a massive scale. Along the road between the valley and ~ 7,000 ft, there had to have been at least one dead or dying conifer for every two “healthy” specimens. I just kept repeating what Ian had mentioned as a “silver lining” – forest thinning as a return to pre-fire suppression days – to myself and to my wife, but it was a substantial bummer nonetheless. We were extremely grateful to find that the forests above 7ish thousand were doing reasonably well – at least from the visual side of things, of course.

    On the bright side, I did get a new “Long Live Mono Lake” sticker for my also-new car. Little victories, eh?

    • Chowpow

      It’s scary thinking about how the next few summers will turn out with all of these dead trees providing huge amounts of fuel. I guess they’ll either burn or decompose.

      Another little victory – Woodpeckers

    • alanstorm

      Ya, so many red/brown pine, firs & redwoods up my way, its become common place. One way to look at it in my county (Mendo) is that the conifers have encroached far into the oak woodland transition zones & now they’re dying back to where they belong. On the other hand, if this winter is an epic fail again, it will be an unprecidented, historic die-off of doom (among other catastrophic consequences). Hey, no pressure on this winter or anything!

  • kipling

    GFS is looking pretty good at about 7 days out. Looks like a decent rain and snow event… Hope it holds.

    • 805 Weather

      Looks like Yosemite to Tahoe will get a really good snow storm… Just what I need to hear!

      • SlashTurn

        I like the Mammoth vs Kirkwood orographic battle for snow totals. It all depends on what latitude the SW flow sets up.

    • jstrahl

      Looks like an OK storm, mostly east of the Bay Area, which will get some light rain. After that, back to nothing but Hs and lots of skewered and shunted systems, but definitely better than seeing a total shutout.

  • Sunchaser

    As I watched each frame of the satellite loop today olaf has merged with the cold front inching closer to the coast. NWS is saying that high clouds will cover the entire CWA absent any low level moisture precipitation..so just a slight chance of rain. At least that’s what the models are saying…why do I have doubt ????

    • 805 Weather

      Much doubt in the force, indeed.

  • gray whale

    Already under 60F here at 2200′, feels crisp and Fall-like. Making the season’s first bolognese tonight, going to get firewood tomorrow. Forecast looks good, winter looks promising. We’ll see if Olaf wants to visit this week or perhaps next! Positive Mental Attitude in effect. Hope my post below is taken with the proper salt-grain 😉

    • Archeron

      It was 48 degrees this morning near Folsom! Was projected to be around 53. I absolutely love it!

  • Sokafriend

    Steve Gregory’s new post. And he’s talking about the MJO again…
    So, is the MJO a potential party crasher?

    MJO INTENSIFIES – BUT EL NIÑO MAY ‘OVERPOWER’ IT
    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/comment.html?entrynum=395

    • jstrahl

      I’ve yet to see any reason to think that MJO will crash the party, in the sense of neutralizing or reducing El Nino’s effects, in fact per stuff i saw yesterday they can work hand in hand. But here’s what he says.

      “Until yesterday, the models had been calling for the Oscillation to begin propagating slowly eastward by the upcoming weekend while remaining at moderate to strong intensity. However, the latest global model runs are pointing towards an oscillation that will only shift slightly towards the east before ‘collapsing’ in about 2 weeks. Besides being incorrect, it is quite possible that the current super El Niño base state of the atmosphere is simply too entrenched to allow the signal to propagate across the Pacific – or – it will be ‘hidden from ‘view’ by the overriding El Niño flow pattern. We should, however, be able to discern an oceanic response in SST’s and total ocean heat content if the MJO does actually move across the equatorial Pacific.”

      Which to me reads that the signal will be neutralized.

      Here’s Chris Borg on how the two can work together.
      http://www.surfline.com/surf-news/when-el-nino-meets-the-mjo_129242/

      • Sokafriend

        Thank you! I think I see now. The models had been incorrect until yesterday, or whenever yesterday was in the reference.

  • Nathan

    Finally, finally, “fall” weather in SD. And by “fall” I mean summer, and by summer, I mean normal summer, not psychotic tropical death heat summer.

    Ample fog in the morning, _just_ barely warm enough to get to the car in a tshirt.

    Trying to squeeze in as much beach time as possible, water should be warm enough for at least 2-3 more weeks.

    • Sokafriend

      That’s a very accurate description of what the ‘ summer’ felt like. Check this out in the Blob and Ridge section regarding the above average lingering through winter water temp potential:

      https://wunderground.atavist.com/el-nino-forecast

      • Nathan

        Thanks.

    • inclinejj

      Fall weather. It was 78 degrees at the Raiders vs Charger game Sunday!

  • alanstorm

    Looks like the front comes thru my neck of the woods Tues night. Maybe up to 1″ in the Humboldt/Mendocino coastal mtns? I’ll take it! Lots of thirsty trees & dry streams up here.

  • It would rain in San Jose on Bass Pro Shops grand opening day on Wednesday. Lol

  • kipling

    latest 00z showing a nice storm for portions of NorCal tapering off but providing at least some precip for SoCal at about 6 days out. Here is a shot of Nov. 2nd.

  • kipling

    00z 6 days out…

    • 00Z run is, in fact, quite active for the entire Day 5-16 period. Looks promising, since ECMWF has it too.

      • Yeah. I only see one ridge and the rest is troughing and zonal flow.

  • Nathan

    Pretty sweet pole-centered view of current northern hemisphere weather:

    http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

  • Flunking_retirement

    San Diego

    NWS is an interesting read this morning – clear, then cloudy, rain chance is back in for Thursday, cooler, then warmer, then windy, (but wait, there’s more!) Coastal flooding alert next three days. That ought to keep the GFS on its toes.

  • David Thomas
  • David Thomas

    this is looking really good this AM am starting too think if we could see more rain from this then what model runs been showig

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/rb-animated.gif

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/rb.jpg

    • Ansen Gray

      Do you have this run for today? it looks like this is already creating precipitation in NorCal

      • xeren
        • Crank Tango

          We are sitting under the green here in shasta county, but it’s not actually raining. I can still see the 8k’ mountain behind my house (at 3k feet). BUT, the air does feel pretty moist.

        • Dave

          Radar Green over us as well, but it is nearly all virga.

      • David Thomas

        yes take a look at the 2nd photo i added

      • weatherhead

        Mendocino coast has only been getting intermittent mist. Up to one quarter of an inch predicted tonight. Hardly enough to wet the whistle.

    • Bartshe

      lots of moisture, but no dynamics to wring it out as it splits across central CA.

      • jstrahl

        Precisely!! Well-stated.

      • jstrahl

        Precisely! Well started.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      12z Hi Res NAM simulated reflectivity for 5pm PDT this evening:

  • SoCalWXwatcher

    Possibly the strongest Santa Ana event this season coming up on Friday for SoCal, and then a big cool-down and chance of rain next week.

    NWS SD:

    “NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND NEAR THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS FOR F0R FRIDAY. WARMER WITH WEAKER WINDS FOR SATURDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY. FOR LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY…A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOLING AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.”

  • 805 Weather

    Wow, do I dare believe my eyes?! 70ºF on Monday for my location (Camarillo)?! Unbelievable!

    • thlnk3r

      Yes I am shocked to see this!!! After Sunday I see only low 70’s!!!!!!!111

  • rob b

    Looks like Howard did a late update to his blog last night…of note is the snowfall for next week. Seems everyone is now picking up on it, hopefully this amounts to a decent early season storm. Will we see the first chain controls of the season? Will CalTrans and other depts have to break out their plows? We can only hope!!

    “The Dweebs will have a better idea on snowfall amounts Thursday or Friday…. Light to possibly moderate amounts are in the cards…. – See more at: http://mammothweather.com/#sthash.uhYSEqTg.dpuf

  • jstrahl

    06Z shows a modest storm tomorrow SF north, then several rounds coming through the 2nd and 3rd from the Bay Area north to Vancouver, followed by lots of Hs till around the 10th, another impulse. Things may be changing.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Fingers crossed. Let’s get the wet season started!

    • rob b

      Unfortunately the storm that showed up on the 00z for the weekend of 7th/8th isn’t on the 06z. Hopefully it reappears, as we have seen so far the models have bounced back and forth the last few weeks.

  • Thunderstorm

    Current front falling apart. No SW wind. Meager rain at best.

  • CHeden

    This morning’s VIS is showing an area of what appears to be lo-topped convection directly west of the Bay Area and moving ENE. Looking back on images of the last 24hrs, it appears this small core of turbulence is riding along the dirty ridge (and not a direct result of the incoming low) and originated from/in the outflow from Olaf. As of this morning, the southern end of the front is still holding together, which is a nice validation of what we noticed starting to happen yesterday morning. With growing confidence I’m now expecting a decent rain event, with some orographic enhancement possible. Maybe an 1″ (or more?) in the coastal hills and west slopes of the Sierra, and maybe up to 1/4″ in the north Valley. Also, if any breaks in the stratus occurs, things could get a bit unstable with heavier showers possible.

    • SlashTurn

      CHeden I enjoy your analysis much more than my local NWS discussions. Solid.

      • Archeron

        Indeed! Out here in Folsom it is currently cloudy and cool. Notably cooler than even the last few days. I think by tomorrow we will be seeing some of that thing they call rain 🙂

      • CHeden

        Thank you for the kind comment.

    • Crank Tango

      Looks like the valley is starting to get some–did you say you were in cottonwood?

  • Archeron

    I have to say that it seems one huge difference between this year and last is the time on the forecasts. Last year, everything was constantly 10+ days out and then was constantly pushed back. This time around we are seeing forecasts for rain 6 days out or 8 days out or even just 2 days out. While not everything turns out to be a measurable number of rain everywhere, it just seems that things a slightly more predictable than last year.

    • 805 Weather

      Very very true statement.

  • CHeden

    To follow up on my guess for precip chances, here’s the latest 15Z run of the HRRR for 3 p.m. today. It now seems to be picking up on the area of turbulence I mentioned below pushing NE up into NorCal with some precip chances this afternoon in the North Valley. In addtion, the HRRR is also predicting a narrow band of prolonged light/mod precip moving directly over the Monterey area beginning later today as the dirty ridge briefly stalls over the area. Off the NW coast, precip associated with the incoming CF is forecasted to be decidedly more showery in nature, and as such may be capable of producing some heavier showers at it moves inland tomorrow. Only fly in the ointment is how much energy will be lost due to the front starting to outrun the parent low in the GOA. On the plus side, the upper air flow from the west remains decent which should help keep things dynamic. Going to be an interesting 24-36 hrs. IMHO.

  • I’ll have a blog update in a few days, but in the meantime, here’s a brief El Nino impacts overview: https://www.outsideonline.com/2028951/3-predictions-about-el-nino-2015

    • gray whale

      Great overview WW.

      A simple request for links to open in a new tab on the blog. Should be pretty easy to embed into a stylesheet.

      Thanks for all you do!

      • hey noob! 😉 right click–open in new tab

        • click

          lol, doesn’t always work like that on mobile browsers 😉

          • It opens a new window..what’s the problem? You then toggle between windows.

          • click

            i don’t mind switching between the windows when it gives me the option, but a lot of times on my iphone it only allows me to open it, not open in new window/tab. when i go back, i then have to refresh the WW page again to load to current comments (it will load a cached version otherwise, sometimes days old).
            As mentioned above, not a big deal by any stretch of the imagination.

          • xeren

            Probably a sign you should switch to Android 🙂

          • Ian

            That’s the funniest thing I’ve heard all day LMAO!

        • gray whale

          Ha! Maybe I was just trying to draw you out of hibernation.

          Most websites do target=”_blank” nowadays, so I’m out of the right-click habit. It makes sense if you want people to stay on your page. On this blog if you forget to right-click it’s annoying as it can take a while to reload what with 3,000+ comments.

          A very minor gripe regardless.

  • alanstorm

    Looking good!! This includes an additional storm Sunday with lower snow levels. Time to break out the tarps

  • lightning10

    In a classic year a more Eastern track with the low would favor colder temps with a better chance of rain/thunderstorms for the foothills, mountains, and desert. Then you would have clear conditions at the coastal and valley locations with windy cold or warm conditions depends on gradient.

    What I am interested in this season is seeing how the warmer SSTs will interact with the inside sliders. I wonder if that could help create a better chance for stronger thunderstorms with the cold air mass modifying faster.

    I think its a good sing that we are seeing these type of systems bringing larger wind event. Something that the last several winters have been lacking .

    • gray whale

      I feel like there’s at least a minor correlation between the elevated SSTs and the sliders “bombing out” in SoCal. Whether there’s anything there as far as causality goes is beyond me at this point. But the two seem to have emerged in a similar timeframe.

  • Archeron

    Man the wind here just really kicked up. 4 degrees lower than forecasted too!

  • SoCalWXwatcher

    19z HRRR simulated reflectivity projection for around 2am local time – expecting a band of rain near Santa Barbara, and some heavier cells from about Mendocino Northward. As dry as the lower levels are here, not sure how much of that precip near SoCal makes it to the ground, but it looks more promising up North.

    • Ian

      Thick cloud deck has the sun completely obscured – dark in the house – I’ll just pretend it’s raining. LoL!

      • Larry

        It’s pretty overcast in Mentone too, with a breeze of 4.1 out of the wsw. It’s warm at 84 degrees.
        I keep hoping for rain but not out of these clouds.

  • 805 Weather

    Virga towards Frazier Park & Pine Mountain Club looks very heavy.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Nice shot.
      It’s snowing way up there only to sublimate/evaporate in the dry air below 15,000ft. 🙁

      • 805 Weather

        The contrast was much better in person really dark thick virga… Too bad it’s only virga.

  • Bandini

    A snowstorm? Cautiously optimistic.

    • 805 Weather

      In a sense wouldn’t this concert to a 20 inch snow storm for Tahoe?

      • Ian

        7 day qpf – how many different events is it split up to and is it all cold enough at that level to be snow?

        Cool beans either way

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          I’m thinking most of that is from the system expected next week, since the current one is too dry to account for any green on that map South of Point Conception. Next week’s system is quite cold so it should be an effective snow producer, *IF* it pans out like models are suggesting.

          • Ian

            And who knows – there’s time to turn some of that SoCal green to BLUE! ?

          • 805 Weather

            Yikes didn’t see how many days out this was, hopefully this adds to more than expected snow.

      • SlashTurn

        If this verifies, snow ratios would be at least 12:1 considering the cold nature of the next system. Not sierra cement by any means. This could change drastically in either direction with the track it takes.

        • 805 Weather

          Well true, but if next week’s system pushes in? Wouldn’t that start to build a base?

          • Quagmire Cliffington

            Depends if temps go back to their furnace fall norms. If indeed this is the pattern change (the 5 year pattern change) it would definitely be the start of hopefully a great base. Isn’t it sad that we’d just be happy with a base on the mountains all year for a change?

          • 805 Weather

            It’s depressing when looking back on the years.

          • Quagmire Cliffington

            The low point for me was presidents day mid february this year at heavenly. Dodging rocks and stumps wearing a t-shirt in 70 degree weather on the slopes. It’s tough to find me in anything but full stoke on the mountain but that day really brought me down. Hopeless is a good way to describe it. Looking forward to that being a distant memory this year.

          • 805 Weather

            To think people used to enjoy that weather constantly on the slopes, and now here we are saying drop those temps down in the teens and just dump dump dump.

          • rob b

            Hard to build a base until we see freezing temps over an extended period. The ground is still too warm for the snow to stay for an extended period unless the temps stay down for a while. This is a common problem with early season storms we don’t see the ground around most Tahoe resorts start to freeze until sometime in Dec.

            I should add that’s the long term value of “Sierra Cement” it builds a great base as it freezes over dirt and rocks and helps get the ground cooled down even quicker.

          • 805 Weather

            Well hopefully we start seeing some serious cold weather in November to change that 🙂

    • Crank Tango

      I’m gonna put my snowboots on now!

      • thebigweasel

        I’ve got to blow the dust off mine, and check for spiders. Haven’t had to pull them on since January 2013.

        • Crank Tango

          Ha, I got mine that fall and have worn them maybe twice since.

    • rob b

      I am hoping it’s a “snowstorm! I am headed back to Truckee…leaving a day earlier than planned because of the chance of snow! I’m looking forward to the idea of white mountains, a fire in the fireplace, and MNF on TV!

      • rob b

        I should add Bandini-have you had a chance to get the sley tuned up? Any sighting of Muizk’s beloved Shaun White bobblehead on area roads?

        • Bandini

          I’ve got a “Muzikman” trap set up out back. It’s basically a bear trap with horse Tranquilizers for bait.

          • rob b

            I have this picture in mind every time he writes a story-they read like a classic 80s Warren Miller movie…

    • Nathan

      Just need that pesky E Pac high pressure to stay to the west.

      • Nick W.

        Or move far, far away from here.

        • Nathan

          Or die a cold icy death.

  • Nick W.

    64 degrees in my area next Monday and Tuesday, according to NOAA. If we can’t get any rain, might as well take the cooler air.

  • Crank Tango

    Ok, now it’s lightly sprinkling under all that green in norcal. A lot earlier than forecast too.

  • 805 Weather

    Precipitation chances slowly rising now for next weeks storm here in Camarillo. 😀

    • craig matthews

      I cant wait….the GEFS spaghetti sure looks in line right now regarding the trough.

      • jstrahl

        Where do you get your spaghetti westerns?

        • xeren

          *spaghetti westerlies

          • jstrahl

            That too, i was referring to shots of the West Coast. I do wonder if the late ’60s term “spaghetti western” has become unknown with the passage of time.

        • craig matthews

          Directly from Clint Eastwood. No, the NCEP site off the SFO NWS page…..

      • gray whale

        that’s the call! we need more spaghettis!

    • David Thomas

      if that turns out too be ture then the CFS for NOV will turn out wrong for a dry NOV

    • Dan the Weatherman

      I am ready to see some much-needed precip in Norcal!

  • 805 Weather

    Just had an earthquake, waiting on the details. Only about a 10 second shake.

    • Canyon
      • 805 Weather

        Strangely I don’t think that was the quake, it must have been close or something I do live half a mile away from a smaller fault. I also live 3 stories up and I feel 3.2+ quakes about as far as the 405 nothing further unless bigger. Very strange, and at the moment friends in town about 6 miles away didn’t even feel a nudge. Was a good shake too lots of rattling and moving objects in the house!

        • Ian

          Did you change the bong water today?!

    • craig matthews

      There was some news flash this morning, I caught the very tail end of it, but supposedly a town in Ca has had some number over 400 earthquakes in a short period of time, most of which are/were to minimal to feel the effects….I haven’t found anything on the web about it though… just wondering if anyone has heard of this info. Maybe that is occurring in socal?

      • Chatman

        There’s been a small flurry of them in San Rafael recently.

      • 805 Weather

        Something is up with San Andreas?

        • Thor

          The San Ramon quakes are likely not on the San Andreas- probably Hayward or Calaveras faults

          • 805 Weather

            Aren’t they close enough to effect each other or no?

          • click

            All the small quakes are relieving pressure on the faults so that the “big one” doesn’t happen. When I saw the article about that it had the headline “are these quakes building up to the big one?” And in the first sentence it unequivocally said no lol. Click bait…

          • They actually don’t relieve much fault stress–big earthquakes are so many orders of magnitude larger than small ones that the small ones really aren’t capable of doing much in terms of stress reduction (even hundreds of them). They also don’t increase risk by any meaningful measure. For the most part, they just serve as reminder that we live in a geologically active place.

          • Pfirman

            So true, says this calm fellow in the lower Sacramento Valley. Still, even Davis area has rising ground and the most famous local geologist has earth quake insurance. And as a logical consequence of that, given all the dams surrounding the area, he also has flood insurance.

      • Crank Tango
        • 805 Weather

          Thanks both of you!

      • That’s in the East Bay.

      • EnergyTurtle

        San Ramon! I work here, there’s been a bunch, but I haven’t felt most of them. Most are small 3.0 or less.

  • Ian

    Two 3.0+ I’m big bear that I’ve felt in the last two months….things are active.

    Don’t forget, 99.9% chance of the big one in LA before 2018 (5.0+ and specifically in Whittier area fault, right Lightning?)

    • 805 Weather

      It keeps everything eerie just thinking about that.

    • Crouching Dallas

      Ian! Got a link for you re: that burnt aspen grove near you – http://www.californiafallcolor.com/2015/10/16/big-bears-burnt-aspen-to-recover-beautifully/

      Also, earthquakes? Earthquakes.

      • Ian

        Uh oh.. I hope it’s good news….

        ….nice!! I was hoping that’d be the case, thanks for sharing!

      • After visiting a number of burn areas in the eastern Sierra this fall, I am newly impressed by the speed with which aspens re-sprout after fire.

        • gray whale

          One of the world’s most fascinating species indeed.

  • Thunderstorm98

    Wunderground is down.

    • 805 Weather

      Maybe they’re getting ready to surprise us with 100% chances of rain ;D. Lol if only though…

  • Ian

    This is almost certainly the one you felt 805Weather.

    http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/ci37263871#general_summary

    And the latest about the San Ramon swarm….phew, no big one for the bay!

    The earthquake swarm under San Ramon continues with a few magnitude 2.0 or larger earthquakes per day for the past few days. This is lower than the rate of around ten magnitude 2.0 or larger earthquakes earlier in the sequence (October 17-20). A total of 4 earthquakes have been detected beneath San Ramon in the past 24 hours. Since the swarm began on October 13, the Northern California Seismic Network has detected 408 earthquakes in this area. Based on the characteristics of historical earthquake swarms in this region, the current swarm may continue for several more weeks and is unlikely to be a foreshock to a large, damaging earthquake.

    • 805 Weather

      That 3.4 was 2 days ago, but thank you for digging! I’m still trying to figure it out as well! Very puzzled.

      • Ian

        LMAO! you’re right! I forgot I switched from “last 24 hours” to “last 7 days” before i zoomed into the area – DOH!

        But still…it’s not my fault you felt it 2 days late….

        I often get off an escalator, and for the next 30 minutes I swear I keep feeling earthquakes… 😛

        • 805 Weather

          LOL 2 days late might be the truth!

  • jstrahl

    Howard on MJO:

    “As of late…those that are following the MJO know that there is a lot of amplification in the RIMM over the Western Indian Ocean. According to the CPC, they think that it is being supported by a Kelvin Wave traveling east through that area. They feel that it is highly unlikely that the MJO signal will remain strong or move as far east to the Maritime Continent.The El Nino base state has very strong upper subsidence over that large region north of Australia that makes up the Maritime Continent. However…..Just an FYI for the west coast of the CONUS. A strong MJO progressing east from south of India, between 70E and 95E may flip the PNA to negative over the eastern pacific. Additionally…looking at the MJO composites, in November, if a strong signal goes from Phase 1 then 2 to phase 3…the odds are pretty high for the PNA flip and thus cold wet weather for CA. Maybe this is what the new deterministic ECMWF is looking at…. (See Below) – ”

    See more at: http://mammothweather.com/#sthash.gngV7HTN.dpuf

    • 805 Weather

      Whoa. “looking at the MJO composites, in November, if a strong signal goes from Phase 1 then 2 to phase 3…the odds are pretty high for the PNA flip and thus cold wet weather for CA.” This is where he had me!

      • Thunderstorm

        Remember the el-nino of 1972 December? Bitter cold!!

        • Thunderstorm

          The outdoor guy said that wildlife in the high Sierra has got up and gone.

        • 805 Weather

          I wish lol but I wasn’t born yet

        • Dan the Weatherman

          I was too young to remember that year as I was just a baby.

  • Sokafriend

    Has anybody seen the correlation between earthquakes and drought? And drought, substantial rain and subsequent earthquakes? It’s hard to correlate, I know, given the basic issues here, but a clear relationship does exist.
    http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2014/05/groundwater-depletion-destabilizing-san-andreas-fault-earthquake-risk

  • Constant light rain here in San Jose the past 2 hours.

    • thebigweasel

      Really? That is unusual. It’s been drizzling here, but the past two hours it’s been night, so it isn’t light rain-it’s dark.

      • Pfirman

        That is a weasel joke for sure.

    • UrbanBazaar

      Interesting — no rain in SF or Oakland that I’ve noticed so far.

      • Rain band pretty much stuck in the area based on radar. The pavement is actually slick right now.

        • cabeza tormenta

          ! just a sprinkle up in west cococo, noticing an anomaly on the radar at 9:40, all the little blobs of green with bits of yellow are tracking east to west except a bigger blob that’s tracking northwest just to the east of the radar station on loma prieta which shows up as a ‘clear’ circle. I thought it was just some radar weirdness that you see on the screen at night, but maybe it’s real?
          that would place it in west san jose heading toward cupertino.

      • jstrahl

        Nothing in Berkeley yet. 9:30PM.

    • Suzanne Carter

      Nothing in Alameda

  • alanstorm

    NWS Eureka talking of another low coming into NorCal Ca Sunday- Monday with 1.5″ to 2.5″ possible,, followed by a cold airmass from the north & below freezing low temps forecast for next week. Is it safe to say were starting NORMAL late fall pattern??

    • Dan weather maniac

      I hope so but don’t get Charlie Brown on us yet. I’ll believe it when I pull the Doppler and see torrents of rain moving in from ft Bragg north.

      • alanstorm

        Naw, I’m done with the whole Peanuts thing, that was last winter’s metaphor. However, I will bet you a Snoopy Pez dispenser that Leggett gets 2″ by Tues.

        • Pfirman

          Dan, please take that bet.

  • gray whale

    They’re probably all complaining 😉

    • CJ 7

      yes, “they” were. the BF discovered a roof leak on the old cabin in TN, thanks to the deluge of rain. and not being able to do anything about it until thursday!

  • cabeza tormenta

    my last comment didn’t seem to post, just noticing that the radar at 10:00p.m. is showing the showers in san jose moving in a northwesterly direction while all the other shower blobs are moving in the expected west to east direction.

  • thlnk3r

    I think we have some colder weather on tap for next week. Goodbye Indian Summer 😉

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      EC really digging that trough. Hope it takes more of an overwater path than that though.

    • Oh yes! That’s a beautiful looking trough.

    • Nick W.

      The first 1/3rd of November sees below average temps for much of the West. I see the tables are turning a bit.

    • Flunking_retirement

      Indian summers don’t occur until after the first frost. I know what you mean though.

      • cabeza tormenta

        in coastal California indian summer simply refers to the warmest months of September and October since for many places the first frost isn’t until December, or even later in some years.

        • Flunking_retirement

          I know. I’m a Buckeye, Indian summer is a different time of year altogether back there, and its not always warm, more like the last few days of clear weather before the snow flies. So when i hear west coasters say indian summer I’m like , (no offense but)
          “yeah right, whatever !”.

  • SFBay2

    Constant light rain in Palo Alto, for about two hours. I’m starting to think it may actually make a difference with my grass, etc.

    Sitting under my covered back porch listening to the pattering on the awning. Love it. I may have to camp out here during the winter storms. It’s so nice to hear rain again.

  • Bob G

    just went outside and its raining outside of Newman. Wasn’t expecting that.

  • lightning10

    As mentioned before wouldn’t be all that shocked if this was all on one fault and related. Interesting to see.

    • What is that thick red line supposed to be? It’s certainly not a fault.

  • Lawyercat

    So far this month in Pacifica, my backyard monitoring has shown ~ 0.15 in and per official sources we’ve only seen trace amounts. Historical averages are on the order of 1 inch in Oct. The atmospheric rivers always seem “just around the corner” for NorCal but I have increasing skepticism. Right now even the established trees are showing real signs of stress, and they can’t take another year like the past few. Even if I’m wrong, I’m not sure how the coastal SF melange soil will handle the transition to sudden, frequent torrents after years of drought. Meanwhile my order of moisture vaporators is still stuck on Tatooine due to some stupid blockade.

    • inclinejj

      Hey Lawyercat, Good to see another person from Pacifica here!!

      What part of town are you in? I am in the back of Linda Mar Valley.

  • In Los Banos (near Merced), it has been raining consistently for almost two hours with periods of actual honest-to-goodness steady rain. It’s like some sort of miracle.

    • saw1979

      I woke up this morning at 4:00 and it’s been a steady sounding rain outside (I’m also near Merced) music to my ears!

    • saw1979

      Woke up to rain at 4:00 and it’s been coming down nicely ever since! Love it!! (I’m near Merced also)

  • 805 Weather

    Wow, sprinkling here for about 5 minutes in Camarillo. Definitely wasn’t expecting that and can see mid-level clouds pushing in.

  • Bandini

    Radar looking pretty good for interior Northern and Central California. Also looks to be snowing at a decent clip in the high country around and north of Yosemite.

  • Ian

    Could get interesting next week – as has been mentioned, a little more over water trajectory would be nice, still time!

    Forecast low of 27 Monday, it’s rather late and would be my first sub freezing temp since May.

    THE MOISTURE IS UNDERWHELMING.. BUT MODELS SHOW ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. A COUPLE MORE SHORTWAVES MOVE DOWN THE WEST COAST TO REINFORCE THE
    TROUGH AND KEEP IT WOBBLING AROUND OUR REGION FOR A FEW DAYS. THIS COULD MEAN SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IF THE TROUGH REALLY MATERIALIZES LIKE THIS…IT WILL BE QUITE COOL…THE LIKES OF WHICH WE HAVE NOT SEEN IN A LONG TIME

    • jstrahl

      Already pulling back from next week? Oh well.

    • Stereolab

      So we finally get a giant trough over California but no storms to be pulled in. Our perfect bad luck continues.

      • Archeron

        But we DO have a trough instead of a massive ridge. We have to be patient, as hard as it is right now.

        • Ian

          Stereo and jstrahl – together they are the Dynamic Debbie Downer Duo of the Day!

          LOL!!

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            Welcome to the “Weather-Whine” blog. 😉

  • Chowpow

    Mostly light rain through the night with some heavy bursts mixed in, sitting at 0.74″ so far- better than forecasted! I’m pretty sure I even heard some thunder around 3:45, though that may have just been my sleep deprived imagination.

    • Dan weather maniac

      Not bad. Where is your location?

      • Chowpow

        Just a little north of Arcata.

  • Mary

    Zero rain in Sacramento. Bummer.

    • Mark

      yeah the front split apart right over the 80 corridor…rain to the north and south of Sac area we just get left with the north winds tomorrow

      • Mary

        I did step outside around 6:30 and felt a couple of drops. But the stars started to peek through and that was it. Sigh.

  • David Thomas

    from twitter

    Michael Ventrice ?@MJVentrice Oct 27
    Today marks another RECORD high amplitude of +4.96 standard deviations above average for the ongoing #ElNino per AEI

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CSVAUnUUwAU45ri.png

    • The Thank You Carp

      This tweet was sooo yesterday.

      Discussion on the tweet was relevant to the MJO-like signal that seems to be affecting the peaks in intensity. The drop that is forecast to happen reflects what had been said about the MJO moving into the pacific and working destructively against the Nino influence (which is still really strong, this will by no means kill El Niño).

      • Arabian Sea / Indian Ocean

      • jstrahl

        See below for Howard’s comments re MJO and El Nino. totally disagreeing with what you say.

        • The Thank You Carp

          So this will kill El Niño! 😉

          • jstrahl

            As mentioned a couple of days ago, there’s someone on tweeter responding to informed meteorologists (in that case it was Eric Blake) with ignorant blather. I brought up Howard to demonstrate what garbage that stuff being spewed on tweeter is. Shows that it’s useful to keep up with the discussion here, where we take apart stuff like that. 🙂

          • The Thank You Carp

            #lolmodoki

          • jstrahl

            Indeed him.

  • Bandini

    I think I might head up to Mt Rose after work and try to get a “real time” report for the Weatherwest brethren. But as of now it seems like the best precipitation is falling to our north and south. The Tahoe bubble is in effect.

    • geopower

      Drizzle in Reno, but just trace at my weather station.

      • Charlie B

        Nothing in South Reno (Windy Hill area).

    • inclinejj

      Are you going to bring you sley?

    • Charlie B

      I’m headed to Seattle, to listen to the wailing and gnashing of teeth about the dreaded El Nino up there. I used to live there and usually by now Chinook Pass would be closed and Mt. Baker working on its base. Zip this year so far.

      • Pfirman

        I have been visiting Seattle since 1965 and this is was the first summer where there was zip snow on the Olympics and Cascades in July. Mt. Rainier had some dirty patches.
        Very unsettling.

  • David Thomas

    got some rain this AM looks likewe got about 0.11″ of rain

  • David Thomas

    one thing for sure is we will start seeing temper that we have not seen since last winter area wide with mid 50 too lower 60s for highs in the valley and upper 40s and mid 50s in the foot hills and low 60s at time starting monday of next week so this weekend this could be are last weekend with highs in the low 80s after that bring out the jackets

  • Sublimesl

    .00 inches of rain in Oakland Hills from this, and .00 for October. September had .04. An extremely dry start to this rain year–October is normally around an inch and quarter, and its rare to have no rain at all. Also very warm.

    I’m glad that others appear to have received some precipitation. Lets hope for a better November.

    • Archeron

      Yea our chance of rain here last night was 40% and as of this morning is now 20%.

  • weathergeek100

    Bay Area radar loop looks like crap. Forget it. Probably won’t see any rain today. Haven’t seen a drop here in the east bay. Such a disappointment.

    • Quagmire Cliffington

      I’m gonna start screen shotting all of these comments and re post them in February so you all can see how ridiculous you sound.

      • jstrahl

        And i frankly HOPE that we do sound ridiculous at that point.

        • 805 Weather

          You both have good points.

  • Arnold Weather Fanatic

    About .19 inches so far, and that is about it, I think. Death Valley has had more rain than us.

    • We are so used to getting no rain on the Central Coast it’s almost funny reading the complaints. Rain, what the hell is rain? Yes, Death Valley has received more precip than we have, by more than double this calendar year. And there is no rain in our forecast for the next 10 days (or is that 10 weeks, I can’t remember)

  • jstrahl

    8:38AM NWS San Francisco Bay Area discussion.

    “Discussion…as of 8:30 am PDT Wednesday…frankly disappointing
    precipitation numbers so far with virtually all spots coming in with .05”
    or less over the past 24 hours. Even higher elevation spots
    generally have had very light amounts with Mount Hamilton
    currently the “highest” at a paltry 0.12″ — needless to say so
    far it is well below what we were expecting a few days ago.
    Currently radar loop does show a few showers going through with a
    few more off the coast, so we could end up with slightly better
    numbers later today. However, high resolution models bring any
    precipitation to an end by noon, so any additional rainfall with be
    short-lived. This appears to be a good call in light of the WV
    loop indicating much drier air about to move across our region.”

    • Archeron

      Even so though, last year at this time we did not have this same cooler weather. I was wearing tank tops and shorts at night last October and November. Now with the evenings being in the 40’s, I am at last making use of some nice warmer clothes. We may not have the water yet, but change is in the air I think!

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        Good point. Last year, even during the series of storms during December, we did not see a lot of cold air. Those storms originated out in the Pacific close to our own latitude and had a subtropical tap. We weren’t getting anything originating in the GOA, and the 540DM line remained North and East of the state. By the time we got a very cold storm around New Years’ Day, the rains stopped.

        I’m looking forward to the colder temperatures, and hopefully some scattered showers with decent snow levels in the Mtns next week.

        • jstrahl

          So we now celebrate “scattered showers”? Whoopiie!

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            I don’t know about “celebrating”, but I’d much rather see it occur than the heat we’ve been dealing with since last May. Sorry if I sounded upbeat.

          • jstrahl

            Hopefully we won’t be celebrating scattered showers and drizzle in January.

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            if it is the case in January that scattered showers and drizzle are a rare surprise, most of the ads that show up on this site will be for Prozac and Zoloft.

          • thlnk3r

            Hey no Debbie Downers allowed 😉

            Let’s enjoy the cooler weather next week.

    • lightning10

      Not a shock. To much dry air at the lower levels just eats storms up. The first few storms will likely be that.

  • thebigweasel

    Just enough drizzle to get the ground wet and that’s it so far. Still, our weekend forecast looks pretty good–rain likely, and temps cold enough that we might even see a bit of sleet. This would early for snow for us; our first snowfall is usually around T-giving. Early snow doesn’t indicate much: we got our first snow, 3″, on Guy Fawkes Day (Nov 5th) in 2013, and the less said about the “winter” of 2013-4, the better.
    Here’s an oddity for everyone: the next time it snowed here was early April, 2015 (4.5″, gone the next day.). So we’ve gone two winters, meteorological OR astronomical, in a row with zero snow. Our normal annual range is 8-14 feet.

    • gray whale

      I had been picking up on some Anglicisms in your comments (“I’ve” instead of I have, “behaviour” etc) but that only narrows it down to 15 or so countries. With a Guy Fawkes Day mention you’ve revealed your true colours. Cheerio Weasel!

      • I usually spot ’em by watching what they call a garbage can/bin. They either call it a rubbish or dust bin instead, they almost never say garbage can.

      • Larry

        He’s probably from Canada. That’s how we spell.

      • thebigweasel

        I was raised in London. Guy Fawkes Night was my favourite holiday.

        • jstrahl

          Yeah Guy!!!

  • inclinejj

    About 12 drops in Pacifica so far today. Streets were almost wet overnight. A few drops on the truck overnight.

  • Thor

    Whatever happened to Olaf? Is that him retrograding in the bottom left of this current satellite loop? Or did he just dissipate?

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/flash-vis.html

  • Thor

    What happened to Olaf? Is that him retrograding in the bottom left-center of this satellite loop? Seems like a substantial circulation. Or did he just dissipate?

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/flash-vis.html

    • Thor

      sorry for the double post. I am new to the internet 🙂

    • gray whale

      Nope — that’s Olaf! As always, quite the dancer. Could get re-entrained in jet flow again for next week. Or could fizzle.

      • Thor

        quite the tease too apparently- looked like he was gonna go with the flow onshore but alas not.

        but thanks-

        • Quagmire Cliffington

      • Quagmire Cliffington

        cool story hansel

  • weatherhead

    Only a light misty drizzle overnight near Mendocino. Now it is sunny. Hope-ometer set back to Sunday.

  • Picked up “0.01 of rain here in San Jose. I thought we had more than this.

  • Elm

    some rain in the morning here in fresno… dont know how much.

  • The drizzle was nice, but really amounted to very little in most spots (and means that the north wind event to come still present fire weather concerns). A colder storm is likely during the first couple of days in November, and will very likely bring much cooler weather (even if precipitation will be quite modest). At least a couple of inches of widespread snow will be likely at the higher elevations. It’s a taste, at least, while we wait for December/January.

    • rob b

      I am looking forward to when 1-3 inches of snow possible becomes 1-3 feet of snow is possible with more at the highest elevations…

  • thlnk3r

    For the So Cal residents. A decent Santa Ana is in store for us. Per NWS SD, it should start to die off around Friday afternoon: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?prod=XXXAFDSGX&wfo=SGX

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Hopefully we get through this without any major fires.

    • That’s great news considering surf forecast for Friday morning 🙂

    • lightning10

      For me all it means is getting a box of tissues ready and dry skin lotion.

      • Ian

        A long weekend alone in your room with the ‘puter?! LOL!!

        😛

    • Nick W.

      I can’t imagine how bad this will get if not for those summer SoCal rains.

  • Thunderstorm

    I’m surprised so many don’t get it! This el-nino is different!!! The 1-2 area is cooling the 3-4 area is warming. The systems are coming in from the north. There is a rectangular block of warm water from southern california all the way south under the bottom of Hawaii. It’s getting warmer! Warm moist el-nino air into warm air doesn’t do much. The demise of the latest cold front. Overland system coming next week, don’t expect much for the coast or southern california. If the new kid on the block keeps getting stronger (THE RECTANGULAR BLOB) who knows what to expect.

    • Chowmin

      Currently, there is a huge difference in SST readings between IR imagery and microwave imagery.

    • yenlard

      uh oh….there goes winter.

    • Chowmin

      Currently, there is a huge difference in SST readings between IR imagery and microwave imagery. Daniel mentioned that extensive cloud cover may be interfering with IR imagery SST readings.

      • click

        Thanks for posting this chart, I still wasnt clear on how the CPC numbers (weekly enso updates) and CDAS (via tropical tidbits) values were so mismatched. This helped a lot, and good explanation re:cloud cover affecting measurements. any chance you want to share the source link?

        • https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oisst maybe this link will help. I think I saw the graph on twitter today or maybe ‘sooo yesterday’ LOL

          • click

            nice, thanks for the link, although i forgot to right click and open in a new tab lol.

      • Clouds and rain also cool a region and Nino 1+2 is very susceptible to cooling in this respect. 97 was rather sunny in this fall time frame. ’15 the opposite so far.

    • molbiol

      The cooling that is occurring off the South American coast is short term due to storminess in the area. There is still a very strong temperature gradient between the maritime continent and the nino 3 regions which should continue the parade of WWBs and weakening trades…that is until negative feedback occurs in late winter and early spring at which point La Nina will start to emerge. Keep in mind that the equator is a MUCH larger contributor to the atmospheric forcing that generates the Hadley and Ferrel cells and corresponding high and low pressure systems (including the subtropical ridge location) due to higher available heat energy. Therefore I wouldn’t worry about warming across the NE pacific since the equator is a much bigger player. Its a guarantee that the Hadley cell will be disrupted by el nino.

    • gray whale

      Oh my God!!! So much emotion!!! So little Science!!!!

      I’ll stick with Chowmin and molbiol for now. In addition to what they mention, Nino 1/2 is always going to be cooling unless there’s an active bloom of warm water from a kelvin wave. That’s how the trade winds work. There’s plenty more warm water in transit.

      I’d recommend you dig up some research on the importance of ocean temperature or temperature anomaly differentials between the equator and the rest of the pacific on ENSO behavior in California. Then post the research here with your thoughts, and people will take you seriously, I promise.

    • jstrahl

      grey whale is right, short on science.

  • Blueroo

    I know most of you weather heads don’t get your info from weather underground…but I was just watching the satalite feed from 7:30 this morning until 11:30 for the Infared feed. Between 10:30 to 11:30 there is a massive jump…almost a totally different system. I’m guessing it’s just a glitch.

    • AlTahoe

      I watch the 28km Infrared loop from the national weather service page and it has been missing like 12 hours of data each day for the last week or so. The 16km and below are not having this issue. Weird.

  • On Dre

    Rookie question; The big story for the last couple of years was the Ridiculous Resistant Ridge. It parked over Cali and sent the rain over us and into the Midwest. I have heard the El Nino’s do not necessary ‘bring’ the rain and that some El Nino years had below average rainfalls. Could we get a RRR and just send more rain over us? Thanks!

    • Quagmire Cliffington

      Keep On Dre-aming Troll.

    • The set-up is supposed to put that ridge up and over Canada. Hudson Bay somewhere give or take a 500 miles or so and then we would have a low out in the pacific that will help steer storms from the subtropical jet stream. So if you want to park it over Hudson Bay for us we would all appreciate it! 😉

    • jstrahl

      It didn’t send storms over us per se, but up north and over, or just shredded them. The conditions which created theRRR no longer exist. You can read Daniel’s previous blog posts about the RRR, see right margin, just below the “subscribe” space.

  • Archeron

    that 20% chance of rain just panned out for Folsom! Coming down quite nicely!

    • Quagmire Cliffington

      • Archeron

        LOL…I spit out my water when I watched this. Such a great movie!

  • lightning10

    These high and mid level clouds are becoming the new norm the past few weeks. At least it shows their is some moisture somewhere. Hardly and cloudy days 2 winters ago.

  • Ian

    With nothing mentioned but high/mid clouds I’m quite surprised to see the low clouds form this afternoon over the mountains. Looking NW from Running Springs.

  • jstrahl

    12Z shows the 11/2-3 system being whittled down, then a system hits the PacNW coastal area, a touch of light rain into far NorCal, then a system moves down on the 13th, fizzles out well north of SF, a bit of rain to near the Oregon border. Hs, Hs, Hs,…… all the way down. So far, dry to mid November, very dry. Of course, the tap may turn on any time, even in the next 16 days, who knows.

    • Quagmire Cliffington

      Look man. The keg is on the way. In fact it will be here very soon. Once it’s tapped, the beer will flow like wine and the women will flock like the salmon of Capistrano.

      • jstrahl

        Keg? Who cares about the keg? i’m waiting for some greens.:-)

  • Blueroo

    Infared still down for the pacific on wunderground…hmmm!

  • admode1

    Snowing at work, 3 miles west of susanville. Elevation 4800′. Was up to .70″ of rain when I left home this morning in susanville. Old school weather!